Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co., Ltd. (002457.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.06 - $36.05$21.28
Multi-Stage$10.34 - $11.30$10.81
Blended Fair Value$16.04
Current Price$11.11
Upside44.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.31%9.85%0.210.260.240.240.170.150.140.060.050.05
YoY Growth---22.25%10.93%0.29%36.64%14.90%8.21%129.38%26.86%5.01%-43.02%
Dividend Yield--1.72%3.27%2.72%2.27%2.17%1.87%1.26%0.51%0.44%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1225.7015.42
Cash Retained (M)147.60147.60147.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.12-25.70-15.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)106.48121.90132.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)332.19332.19332.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.11%6.11%7.11%
Fair Value$14.06$21.28$36.05
Upside / Downside26.58%91.50%224.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.61218.17231.50245.65260.66276.58284.88
Payout Ratio28.21%40.57%52.93%65.29%77.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.0188.52122.53160.37202.38248.92263.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.11%6.11%7.11%
Year 1 PV (M)80.5881.3582.12
Year 2 PV (M)101.55103.49105.45
Year 3 PV (M)121.00124.48128.04
Year 4 PV (M)139.01144.37149.89
Year 5 PV (M)155.65163.19171.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,835.622,973.103,115.87
Equity Value (M)3,433.413,589.993,752.39
Shares Outstanding (M)332.19332.19332.19
Fair Value$10.34$10.81$11.30
Upside / Downside-6.97%-2.73%1.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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