Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Lianfa Textile Co.,Ltd (002394.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.15 - $5.51$4.85
Multi-Stage$8.32 - $9.20$8.75
Blended Fair Value$6.80
Current Price$11.14
Upside-38.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.49%-12.72%0.140.890.080.360.560.680.830.710.800.80
YoY Growth---84.87%1,024.65%-78.19%-35.20%-16.66%-18.72%16.66%-11.05%0.54%50.96%
Dividend Yield--1.81%11.79%1.06%4.59%5.55%7.81%7.04%6.12%4.72%5.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)334.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.9141.8225.09
Cash Retained (M)273.84273.84273.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.91-41.82-25.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)206.93232.02248.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)323.87323.87323.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.720.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate-9.09%-8.09%-7.09%
Fair Value$4.15$4.85$5.51
Upside / Downside-62.77%-56.43%-50.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)334.57307.50282.63259.76238.75219.43226.02
Payout Ratio18.15%32.52%46.89%61.26%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.73100.00132.53159.13180.57197.49209.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate-9.09%-8.09%-7.09%
Year 1 PV (M)90.7391.7292.72
Year 2 PV (M)109.08111.49113.93
Year 3 PV (M)118.83122.79126.84
Year 4 PV (M)122.32127.80133.45
Year 5 PV (M)121.38128.20135.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,132.412,252.302,377.52
Equity Value (M)2,694.742,834.312,979.80
Shares Outstanding (M)323.87323.87323.87
Fair Value$8.32$8.75$9.20
Upside / Downside-25.31%-21.44%-17.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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