Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co., Ltd. (002318.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.16 - $356.57$239.67
Multi-Stage$44.03 - $48.13$46.04
Blended Fair Value$142.86
Current Price$24.37
Upside486.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.09%22.84%0.510.440.400.380.270.270.130.050.020.07
YoY Growth--16.16%9.38%5.26%44.55%0.00%100.01%150.00%200.03%-75.00%7.89%
Dividend Yield--2.05%1.97%2.62%2.60%2.06%3.58%1.52%0.80%0.18%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,707.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)927.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)780.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)341.41213.38128.03
Cash Retained (M)780.03780.03780.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-341.41-213.38-128.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)438.62566.65652.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)952.10952.10952.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.600.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.600.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.16$239.67$356.57
Upside / Downside265.88%883.46%1,363.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,707.041,818.001,936.172,062.022,196.052,338.792,408.96
Payout Ratio54.31%61.44%68.58%75.72%82.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)927.011,117.051,327.881,561.401,819.672,104.912,228.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,032.271,042.051,051.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,133.961,155.561,177.36
Year 3 PV (M)1,232.181,267.551,303.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,327.001,378.031,430.52
Year 5 PV (M)1,418.511,487.031,558.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,778.1337,506.2339,300.46
Equity Value (M)41,922.0543,836.4545,821.94
Shares Outstanding (M)952.10952.10952.10
Fair Value$44.03$46.04$48.13
Upside / Downside80.68%88.93%97.49%

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