Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sichuan Development Lomon Co., Ltd. (002312.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.90 - $41.53$15.69
Multi-Stage$5.64 - $6.15$5.89
Blended Fair Value$10.79
Current Price$10.83
Upside-0.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS98.40%15.49%0.160.290.040.030.060.010.000.030.060.05
YoY Growth---44.72%568.14%25.95%-37.52%957.62%45.98%-87.78%-54.45%18.60%42.53%
Dividend Yield--1.35%4.13%0.42%0.33%0.71%0.12%0.09%0.43%0.95%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)544.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.9768.1140.86
Cash Retained (M)177.11177.11177.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.97-68.11-40.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.14109.00136.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,931.271,931.271,931.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.90$15.69$41.53
Upside / Downside-17.83%44.88%283.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)544.86580.27617.99658.16700.94746.50768.90
Payout Ratio67.49%72.00%76.50%81.00%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.75417.77472.74533.10599.30671.85711.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)382.57386.20389.82
Year 2 PV (M)396.44403.99411.61
Year 3 PV (M)409.38421.13433.11
Year 4 PV (M)421.44437.65454.32
Year 5 PV (M)432.66453.55475.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,849.539,276.969,720.76
Equity Value (M)10,892.0111,379.4811,884.86
Shares Outstanding (M)1,931.271,931.271,931.27
Fair Value$5.64$5.89$6.15
Upside / Downside-47.92%-45.59%-43.18%

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