Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited (002311.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.51 - $159.01$97.39
Multi-Stage$46.92 - $51.20$49.02
Blended Fair Value$73.21
Current Price$63.77
Upside14.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.81%13.37%0.680.710.450.490.460.430.340.340.280.21
YoY Growth---3.94%58.69%-8.99%6.78%7.79%24.50%0.55%23.51%33.98%6.01%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.60%0.77%0.90%0.59%1.06%1.20%1.41%1.67%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,022.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,984.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,038.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,004.52627.82376.69
Cash Retained (M)3,038.153,038.153,038.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,004.52-627.82-376.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,033.632,410.322,661.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.412.642.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.51$97.39$159.01
Upside / Downside2.73%52.72%149.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,022.605,349.075,696.766,067.056,461.416,881.407,087.84
Payout Ratio39.51%49.61%59.71%69.80%79.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,984.452,653.593,401.324,235.055,162.806,193.266,556.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,403.102,425.882,448.66
Year 2 PV (M)2,789.502,842.632,896.26
Year 3 PV (M)3,145.403,235.693,327.70
Year 4 PV (M)3,472.493,606.033,743.39
Year 5 PV (M)3,772.373,954.584,143.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,529.6865,549.8968,685.69
Equity Value (M)78,112.5581,614.7185,245.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
Fair Value$46.92$49.02$51.20
Upside / Downside-26.43%-23.13%-19.71%

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