Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.,Ltd (002244.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.96 - $210.75$197.50
Multi-Stage$26.98 - $29.53$28.23
Blended Fair Value$112.87
Current Price$12.55
Upside799.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.69%9.73%0.680.891.091.060.810.540.390.150.150.23
YoY Growth---23.18%-18.48%2.83%30.76%49.32%37.23%162.86%-2.98%-32.45%-14.83%
Dividend Yield--6.51%12.98%11.87%15.40%18.07%13.00%7.58%2.03%2.20%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,306.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)817.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,489.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)661.38413.36248.02
Cash Retained (M)2,489.562,489.562,489.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-661.38-413.36-248.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,828.182,076.202,241.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,120.613,120.613,120.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.96$197.50$210.75
Upside / Downside385.73%1,473.71%1,579.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,306.903,521.853,750.773,994.574,254.224,530.744,666.66
Payout Ratio24.72%37.77%50.83%63.89%76.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)817.341,330.301,906.502,551.993,273.334,077.674,316.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,231.981,243.661,255.33
Year 2 PV (M)1,635.091,666.231,697.67
Year 3 PV (M)2,026.912,085.102,144.39
Year 4 PV (M)2,407.682,500.272,595.51
Year 5 PV (M)2,777.622,911.783,051.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,118.5377,698.4981,415.45
Equity Value (M)84,197.8288,105.5392,159.43
Shares Outstanding (M)3,120.613,120.613,120.61
Fair Value$26.98$28.23$29.53
Upside / Downside114.99%124.97%135.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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