Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Leaguer Co., Ltd. (002243.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.00 - $37.41$17.79
Multi-Stage$4.44 - $4.84$4.63
Blended Fair Value$11.21
Current Price$9.57
Upside17.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.72%35.98%0.200.200.260.150.100.100.020.020.000.01
YoY Growth---3.48%-23.18%74.93%46.38%4.65%552.66%0.00%409.68%-56.64%-24.58%
Dividend Yield--2.24%2.90%2.91%1.41%1.10%0.80%0.07%0.20%0.02%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.5528.4717.08
Cash Retained (M)25.5425.5425.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.55-28.47-17.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)-20.01-2.938.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,210.581,210.581,210.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.00$17.79$37.41
Upside / Downside-16.44%85.88%290.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227.73242.53258.30275.08292.97312.01321.37
Payout Ratio88.79%89.03%89.27%89.51%89.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.19215.92230.59246.24262.96280.81297.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)199.00200.89202.77
Year 2 PV (M)195.86199.59203.35
Year 3 PV (M)192.76198.29203.93
Year 4 PV (M)189.71197.01204.51
Year 5 PV (M)186.71195.73205.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,406.584,619.424,840.41
Equity Value (M)5,370.625,610.935,860.07
Shares Outstanding (M)1,210.581,210.581,210.58
Fair Value$4.44$4.63$4.84
Upside / Downside-53.64%-51.57%-49.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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