Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Sector

Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.,Ltd. (002138.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.71 - $183.62$69.88
Multi-Stage$24.94 - $27.23$26.06
Blended Fair Value$47.97
Current Price$35.16
Upside36.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.94%15.35%0.450.310.410.270.250.230.210.240.220.02
YoY Growth--46.22%-24.55%52.62%7.52%10.83%6.51%-12.01%7.39%1,343.80%-85.70%
Dividend Yield--1.57%1.13%1.57%1.05%0.75%1.12%1.12%1.41%1.18%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)986.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)558.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)428.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197.38123.3674.02
Cash Retained (M)428.25428.25428.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-197.38-123.36-74.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)230.87304.89354.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)781.54781.54781.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.71$69.88$183.62
Upside / Downside12.94%98.76%422.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)986.881,051.021,119.341,192.101,269.581,352.111,392.67
Payout Ratio56.61%63.28%69.96%76.64%83.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)558.63665.13783.13913.651,057.831,216.901,288.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)609.05614.82620.59
Year 2 PV (M)656.62669.13681.75
Year 3 PV (M)701.46721.59742.11
Year 4 PV (M)743.67772.27801.68
Year 5 PV (M)783.35821.19860.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,997.0816,769.7517,571.99
Equity Value (M)19,491.2220,368.7421,278.59
Shares Outstanding (M)781.54781.54781.54
Fair Value$24.94$26.06$27.23
Upside / Downside-29.07%-25.87%-22.56%

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