Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Haisum Engineering Co., Ltd. (002116.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.08 - $149.82$140.36
Multi-Stage$86.32 - $95.01$90.58
Blended Fair Value$115.47
Current Price$10.13
Upside1,039.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.12%8.22%0.270.170.130.080.060.230.200.180.270.14
YoY Growth--53.74%32.62%70.63%23.45%-72.85%13.90%10.00%-32.87%100.31%12.11%
Dividend Yield--2.67%1.65%1.20%0.77%0.96%3.02%1.77%1.92%1.77%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)356.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)144.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.3544.5926.76
Cash Retained (M)212.49212.49212.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.35-44.59-26.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)141.15167.90185.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)458.55458.55458.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate-0.28%-0.28%-0.28%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Fair Value$127.08$140.36$149.82
Upside / Downside1,154.53%1,285.58%1,378.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)356.74367.78379.16390.89402.99415.46427.92
Payout Ratio40.43%50.35%60.26%70.17%80.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)144.25185.17228.48274.30322.74373.91395.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.28%-0.28%-0.28%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Year 1 PV (M)183.88185.68187.48
Year 2 PV (M)225.32229.76234.24
Year 3 PV (M)268.63276.60284.73
Year 4 PV (M)313.87326.35339.20
Year 5 PV (M)361.11379.15397.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,227.5440,136.7442,121.47
Equity Value (M)39,580.3541,534.2843,565.01
Shares Outstanding (M)458.55458.55458.55
Fair Value$86.32$90.58$95.01
Upside / Downside752.09%794.16%837.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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