Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co., Ltd. (002081.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.01 - $1.43$1.22
Multi-Stage$9.14 - $10.21$9.66
Blended Fair Value$5.44
Current Price$3.50
Upside55.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.34%1.92%0.130.130.040.250.260.250.190.180.180.07
YoY Growth---2.05%233.96%-84.08%-1.94%1.34%30.56%5.65%4.40%135.64%-31.15%
Dividend Yield--3.97%3.92%0.77%4.62%2.73%3.10%1.57%1.42%1.59%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)457.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.4757.1734.30
Cash Retained (M)137.08137.08137.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.47-57.17-34.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.6079.91102.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,655.922,655.922,655.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate-11.88%-10.88%-9.88%
Fair Value$1.01$1.22$1.43
Upside / Downside-71.12%-65.15%-59.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)457.37407.61363.26323.74288.51257.12264.84
Payout Ratio70.03%74.02%78.02%82.01%86.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.29301.73283.41265.50248.14231.41244.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate-11.88%-10.88%-9.88%
Year 1 PV (M)297.96301.34304.72
Year 2 PV (M)276.37282.68289.06
Year 3 PV (M)255.67264.48273.48
Year 4 PV (M)235.97246.86258.13
Year 5 PV (M)217.31229.92243.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,004.6724,339.9425,736.50
Equity Value (M)24,287.9425,665.2127,105.00
Shares Outstanding (M)2,655.922,655.922,655.92
Fair Value$9.14$9.66$10.21
Upside / Downside161.28%176.10%191.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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