Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mesnac Co., Ltd. (002073.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.85 - $35.39$18.76
Multi-Stage$7.92 - $8.65$8.28
Blended Fair Value$13.52
Current Price$8.98
Upside50.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.49%3.32%0.160.110.060.030.030.020.080.060.070.12
YoY Growth--49.89%79.63%80.33%9.25%82.66%-80.66%50.35%-22.45%-40.72%7.04%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.51%0.81%0.52%0.66%0.40%1.34%0.72%0.70%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)465.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)319.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.1758.2334.94
Cash Retained (M)319.86319.86319.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.17-58.23-34.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.70261.63284.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.831,004.831,004.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.85$18.76$35.39
Upside / Downside31.93%108.93%294.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)465.84496.12528.37562.71599.29638.24657.39
Payout Ratio31.34%43.07%54.80%66.53%78.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.98213.68289.56374.40469.05574.42608.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.54196.39198.23
Year 2 PV (M)240.03244.60249.21
Year 3 PV (M)282.57290.68298.95
Year 4 PV (M)322.31334.70347.45
Year 5 PV (M)359.37376.73394.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,556.196,872.867,201.65
Equity Value (M)7,955.018,315.968,690.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.831,004.831,004.83
Fair Value$7.92$8.28$8.65
Upside / Downside-11.84%-7.84%-3.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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