Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tianjin Yiyi Hygiene Products Co.,Ltd (001206.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.41 - $47.52$31.81
Multi-Stage$17.07 - $18.60$17.82
Blended Fair Value$24.82
Current Price$30.38
Upside-18.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS75.15%0.00%0.890.600.360.410.000.050.030.030.030.04
YoY Growth--47.65%69.28%-12.50%0.00%-100.00%104.90%-10.39%15.27%-30.09%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.75%4.50%2.02%2.25%0.00%0.17%0.08%0.09%0.08%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)220.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.1827.6116.57
Cash Retained (M)110.27110.27110.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.18-27.61-16.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.0982.6693.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.92184.92184.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.450.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.10
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.41$31.81$47.52
Upside / Downside-26.25%4.70%56.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)220.89235.25250.54266.82284.17302.64311.71
Payout Ratio50.08%58.06%66.05%74.03%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.62136.59165.47197.53233.06272.37288.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)123.01124.18125.34
Year 2 PV (M)134.20136.76139.34
Year 3 PV (M)144.27148.41152.63
Year 4 PV (M)153.29159.19165.25
Year 5 PV (M)161.33169.13177.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,440.032,557.882,680.25
Equity Value (M)3,156.133,295.543,440.02
Shares Outstanding (M)184.92184.92184.92
Fair Value$17.07$17.82$18.60
Upside / Downside-43.82%-41.34%-38.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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