Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.69 - $50.21$31.74
Multi-Stage$15.71 - $17.15$16.41
Blended Fair Value$24.08
Current Price$22.83
Upside5.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.17%13.84%0.290.290.270.300.150.150.130.000.080.08
YoY Growth---1.38%8.87%-11.33%97.49%3.16%16.82%7,328.49%-97.82%-5.11%5.00%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.56%2.02%3.23%1.71%1.43%1.55%0.02%1.05%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,905.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,039.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,865.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)581.06363.16217.90
Cash Retained (M)1,865.441,865.441,865.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-581.06-363.16-217.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,284.381,502.281,647.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,776.182,776.182,776.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.69$31.74$50.21
Upside / Downside-5.00%39.03%119.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,905.303,094.153,295.273,509.463,737.573,980.524,099.93
Payout Ratio35.79%46.63%57.48%68.32%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,039.861,442.911,893.962,397.552,958.603,582.463,792.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,304.491,316.851,329.22
Year 2 PV (M)1,548.011,577.501,607.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,771.631,822.481,874.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,976.482,052.492,130.68
Year 5 PV (M)2,163.672,268.172,376.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,850.0436,533.3138,281.00
Equity Value (M)43,614.3145,570.8147,599.13
Shares Outstanding (M)2,776.182,776.182,776.18
Fair Value$15.71$16.41$17.15
Upside / Downside-31.19%-28.10%-24.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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