Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xiamen Port Development Co., Ltd. (000905.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.21 - $15.60$9.34
Multi-Stage$4.61 - $5.02$4.81
Blended Fair Value$7.07
Current Price$8.20
Upside-13.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.79%1.88%0.280.160.220.020.160.010.180.100.070.14
YoY Growth--71.60%-27.11%1,360.88%-90.64%2,164.90%-95.99%80.37%38.87%-47.82%-40.66%
Dividend Yield--3.67%2.49%3.07%0.20%2.27%0.12%1.92%1.01%0.52%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1225.7015.42
Cash Retained (M)41.4241.4241.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.12-25.70-15.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.3015.7226.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)741.60741.60741.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.21$9.34$15.60
Upside / Downside-24.24%13.87%90.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.61218.97233.21248.37264.51281.70290.15
Payout Ratio79.86%81.88%83.91%85.94%87.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.19179.31195.69213.45232.69253.53268.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)162.56164.10165.64
Year 2 PV (M)160.84163.91167.00
Year 3 PV (M)159.05163.62168.27
Year 4 PV (M)157.19163.24169.46
Year 5 PV (M)155.28162.78170.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,622.942,749.632,881.17
Equity Value (M)3,417.863,567.273,722.10
Shares Outstanding (M)741.60741.60741.60
Fair Value$4.61$4.81$5.02
Upside / Downside-43.80%-41.34%-38.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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