Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

YONFER Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. (000902.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.44 - $73.95$43.21
Multi-Stage$19.62 - $21.43$20.51
Blended Fair Value$31.86
Current Price$13.97
Upside128.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.74%68.52%0.320.210.200.200.200.200.200.150.150.02
YoY Growth--53.17%3.97%2.64%-1.95%-0.70%-1.22%33.33%-1.06%718.13%988.88%
Dividend Yield--2.53%1.93%1.88%1.14%1.12%2.48%1.84%1.57%1.70%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,575.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)410.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,165.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)315.15196.97118.18
Cash Retained (M)1,165.051,165.051,165.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-315.15-196.97-118.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)849.91968.091,046.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,279.011,279.011,279.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.44$43.21$73.95
Upside / Downside103.55%209.34%429.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,575.741,678.161,787.241,903.412,027.142,158.902,223.67
Payout Ratio26.06%38.85%51.64%64.43%77.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)410.69651.97922.891,226.281,565.201,943.012,056.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)591.67597.28602.89
Year 2 PV (M)760.07774.55789.17
Year 3 PV (M)916.53942.84969.65
Year 4 PV (M)1,061.651,102.481,144.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,196.021,253.781,313.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,564.8121,558.1022,589.40
Equity Value (M)25,090.7526,229.0327,409.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,279.011,279.011,279.01
Fair Value$19.62$20.51$21.43
Upside / Downside40.43%46.80%53.40%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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