Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.,Ltd. (000895.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.36 - $33.75$25.51
Multi-Stage$31.61 - $34.69$33.12
Blended Fair Value$29.32
Current Price$24.74
Upside18.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.01%4.31%1.411.811.941.721.620.561.451.162.050.91
YoY Growth---22.45%-6.67%12.93%5.99%187.35%-61.00%24.57%-43.25%126.36%-1.87%
Dividend Yield--5.21%6.79%7.49%5.92%3.96%1.44%5.51%4.54%9.08%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,143.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,700.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,443.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,028.66642.91385.75
Cash Retained (M)2,443.072,443.072,443.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,028.66-642.91-385.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.411,800.162,057.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$19.36$25.51$33.75
Upside / Downside-21.75%3.13%36.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,143.285,231.335,320.895,411.985,504.635,598.865,766.83
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,700.213,138.793,591.594,058.984,541.325,038.985,334.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)2,907.592,936.462,965.33
Year 2 PV (M)3,081.973,143.483,205.59
Year 3 PV (M)3,226.483,323.553,422.54
Year 4 PV (M)3,343.993,478.793,617.63
Year 5 PV (M)3,437.133,611.203,792.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,529.6798,266.23103,192.76
Equity Value (M)109,526.83114,759.70120,196.11
Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
Fair Value$31.61$33.12$34.69
Upside / Downside27.78%33.88%40.23%

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