Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tianshan Material Co., Ltd. (000877.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.74 - $53.36$50.01
Multi-Stage$8.62 - $9.42$9.01
Blended Fair Value$29.51
Current Price$6.02
Upside390.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.58%19.25%0.560.762.091.780.770.080.050.060.060.09
YoY Growth---26.92%-63.65%17.67%130.06%873.18%67.17%-16.69%-11.83%-25.60%-9.06%
Dividend Yield--10.02%10.91%23.62%13.49%4.51%0.70%0.38%0.54%0.43%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,968.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,845.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)393.79246.12147.67
Cash Retained (M)123.26123.26123.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-393.79-246.12-147.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)-270.53-122.86-24.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,338.227,338.227,338.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.74$50.01$53.36
Upside / Downside360.85%730.69%786.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,968.962,096.942,233.242,378.402,533.002,697.642,778.57
Payout Ratio93.74%92.99%92.24%91.50%90.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,845.701,949.982,060.032,176.142,298.642,427.882,570.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,816.911,834.131,851.36
Year 2 PV (M)1,788.461,822.531,856.91
Year 3 PV (M)1,760.341,810.871,862.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,732.541,799.171,867.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,705.071,787.431,872.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,428.9957,057.9359,787.49
Equity Value (M)63,232.3266,112.0669,098.76
Shares Outstanding (M)7,338.227,338.227,338.22
Fair Value$8.62$9.01$9.42
Upside / Downside43.14%49.66%56.42%

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