Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhongshan Public Utilities Group Co.,Ltd. (000685.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.76 - $189.40$177.50
Multi-Stage$46.58 - $51.04$48.77
Blended Fair Value$113.13
Current Price$12.37
Upside814.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.99%11.77%0.370.380.420.400.370.240.300.300.400.24
YoY Growth---2.29%-9.20%5.31%7.58%53.01%-19.37%0.38%-23.81%63.91%95.66%
Dividend Yield--4.23%4.96%5.99%4.98%4.24%3.23%3.40%3.00%3.64%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,388.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)723.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)664.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)277.65173.53104.12
Cash Retained (M)664.82664.82664.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-277.65-173.53-104.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)387.17491.29560.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.671,457.671,457.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.76$177.50$189.40
Upside / Downside1,199.61%1,334.92%1,431.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,388.261,478.501,574.601,676.951,785.951,902.041,959.10
Payout Ratio52.11%59.69%67.27%74.84%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)723.44882.501,059.181,255.111,472.021,711.841,812.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)831.42839.30847.18
Year 2 PV (M)940.12958.03976.10
Year 3 PV (M)1,049.541,079.671,110.37
Year 4 PV (M)1,159.681,204.281,250.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,270.551,331.921,395.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,647.3065,673.1968,814.88
Equity Value (M)67,898.6171,086.3874,394.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.671,457.671,457.67
Fair Value$46.58$48.77$51.04
Upside / Downside276.56%294.24%312.58%

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