Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zhongyuan Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. (000544.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Environmental ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.38 - $67.33$38.81
Multi-Stage$18.29 - $19.93$19.10
Blended Fair Value$28.95
Current Price$8.45
Upside242.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.49%58.73%0.980.150.250.250.250.250.230.030.010.01
YoY Growth--554.99%-40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.14%600.00%201.43%13.55%0.64%
Dividend Yield--11.60%2.03%3.90%3.95%3.49%3.94%3.63%0.36%0.08%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,060.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)736.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)324.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.14132.5979.55
Cash Retained (M)324.07324.07324.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.14-132.59-79.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.93191.48244.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)980.26980.26980.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.38$38.81$67.33
Upside / Downside200.39%359.33%696.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,060.721,129.661,203.091,281.291,364.581,453.271,496.87
Payout Ratio69.45%73.56%77.67%81.78%85.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)736.65830.96934.431,047.831,172.031,307.951,384.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)754.51761.67768.82
Year 2 PV (M)770.40785.08799.89
Year 3 PV (M)784.42806.94829.88
Year 4 PV (M)796.68827.32858.83
Year 5 PV (M)807.27846.26886.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,014.2414,691.1315,393.93
Equity Value (M)17,927.5318,718.3919,538.10
Shares Outstanding (M)980.26980.26980.26
Fair Value$18.29$19.10$19.93
Upside / Downside116.43%125.98%135.88%

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