Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co., Ltd. (000526.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.49 - $21.73$17.92
Multi-Stage$28.02 - $30.84$29.41
Blended Fair Value$23.66
Current Price$44.77
Upside-47.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.86%0.00%0.430.190.310.500.500.620.580.600.060.00
YoY Growth--123.80%-37.71%-37.22%-1.51%-18.68%6.28%-2.98%915.97%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.32%1.70%2.88%1.32%1.56%2.10%2.13%0.16%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0129.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)171.43171.43171.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.01-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.42142.05153.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)135.51135.51135.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.49$17.92$21.73
Upside / Downside-67.63%-59.96%-51.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.07232.72230.39228.09225.81223.55230.26
Payout Ratio27.07%39.66%52.24%64.83%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.6492.29120.36147.87174.81201.20212.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)85.0885.9486.81
Year 2 PV (M)102.28104.38106.50
Year 3 PV (M)115.83119.41123.07
Year 4 PV (M)126.23131.46136.86
Year 5 PV (M)133.93140.90148.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,234.173,402.583,577.93
Equity Value (M)3,797.523,984.694,179.34
Shares Outstanding (M)135.51135.51135.51
Fair Value$28.02$29.41$30.84
Upside / Downside-37.40%-34.32%-31.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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