Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Hi-Speed Road and Bridge Group Co., Ltd. (000498.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.04 - $177.88$166.70
Multi-Stage$27.05 - $29.60$28.30
Blended Fair Value$97.50
Current Price$6.13
Upside1,490.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.04%27.19%0.770.610.510.310.330.200.160.050.050.05
YoY Growth--25.93%21.56%61.79%-6.23%66.40%27.01%201.47%12.19%-13.57%-22.79%
Dividend Yield--13.30%11.03%6.78%3.66%5.38%3.67%2.53%0.86%0.56%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,275.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,106.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,168.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)455.13284.46170.68
Cash Retained (M)1,168.891,168.891,168.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-455.13-284.46-170.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)713.76884.43998.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,544.242,544.242,544.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.04$166.70$177.88
Upside / Downside1,238.30%2,619.43%2,801.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,275.672,423.592,581.122,748.892,927.573,117.863,211.40
Payout Ratio48.64%56.91%65.18%73.45%81.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,106.781,379.221,682.402,019.172,392.622,806.082,970.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,283.841,296.011,308.18
Year 2 PV (M)1,457.761,485.531,513.56
Year 3 PV (M)1,628.581,675.331,722.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,796.341,865.421,936.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,961.072,055.792,154.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)60,698.6663,630.4366,674.41
Equity Value (M)68,826.2772,008.5275,309.73
Shares Outstanding (M)2,544.242,544.242,544.24
Fair Value$27.05$28.30$29.60
Upside / Downside341.30%361.71%382.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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