Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CLP Holdings Limited (0002.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.83 - $139.44$109.13
Multi-Stage$182.43 - $200.36$191.22
Blended Fair Value$150.17
Current Price$66.10
Upside127.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.13%1.77%3.103.103.103.103.083.082.972.862.762.65
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.64%0.00%3.72%3.83%3.63%4.15%1.92%
Dividend Yield--4.75%4.85%5.44%3.94%4.30%3.76%3.36%3.57%3.87%4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,124.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,790.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,334.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,824.802,390.501,434.30
Cash Retained (M)3,334.003,334.003,334.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,824.80-2,390.50-1,434.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-490.80943.501,899.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,526.452,526.452,526.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.370.75
LTM Dividend per Share6.256.256.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.370.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.066.627.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Fair Value$84.83$109.13$139.44
Upside / Downside28.33%65.09%110.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,124.0019,162.6219,201.3219,240.1019,278.9519,317.8919,897.43
Payout Ratio82.57%84.05%85.54%87.03%88.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,790.0016,106.7816,424.7816,744.0017,064.4417,386.1018,405.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Year 1 PV (M)15,003.2815,154.5215,305.76
Year 2 PV (M)14,251.3014,540.0714,831.73
Year 3 PV (M)13,532.9213,946.3214,368.04
Year 4 PV (M)12,847.0013,372.9013,914.79
Year 5 PV (M)12,192.4112,819.4513,472.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)393,066.82413,281.73434,319.91
Equity Value (M)460,893.74483,114.99506,212.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,526.452,526.452,526.45
Fair Value$182.43$191.22$200.36
Upside / Downside175.99%189.29%203.12%

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