Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. (000166.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.64 - $7.85$6.04
Multi-Stage$8.47 - $9.30$8.88
Blended Fair Value$7.46
Current Price$5.33
Upside39.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.43%-4.73%0.040.240.360.340.280.210.170.170.190.05
YoY Growth---83.58%-33.10%4.50%22.50%33.53%21.53%3.39%-11.91%303.59%-26.61%
Dividend Yield--0.79%5.25%8.53%7.77%5.99%4.72%3.04%3.33%3.03%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,376.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,853.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,523.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,875.391,172.12703.27
Cash Retained (M)5,523.145,523.145,523.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,875.39-1,172.12-703.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,647.764,351.034,819.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,489.7124,489.7124,489.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Fair Value$4.64$6.04$7.85
Upside / Downside-12.95%13.32%47.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,376.949,470.179,564.329,659.419,755.449,852.4310,148.01
Payout Ratio41.10%50.88%60.66%70.44%80.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,853.804,818.325,801.646,804.047,825.798,867.199,386.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Year 1 PV (M)4,475.414,520.164,564.92
Year 2 PV (M)5,005.245,105.855,207.46
Year 3 PV (M)5,452.275,617.495,786.02
Year 4 PV (M)5,824.746,061.266,304.91
Year 5 PV (M)6,130.156,442.876,768.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)180,457.42189,663.11199,240.71
Equity Value (M)207,345.23217,410.74227,872.24
Shares Outstanding (M)24,489.7124,489.7124,489.71
Fair Value$8.47$8.88$9.30
Upside / Downside58.85%66.56%74.57%

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