Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (000153.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.99 - $25.50$11.67
Multi-Stage$4.58 - $5.00$4.79
Blended Fair Value$8.23
Current Price$6.46
Upside27.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.90%8.47%0.160.070.070.060.080.110.070.070.070.07
YoY Growth--117.31%6.40%18.78%-31.57%-25.72%63.26%-7.94%10.20%-0.39%-2.13%
Dividend Yield--2.52%1.25%0.99%0.83%1.62%2.16%1.35%1.23%0.54%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7614.238.54
Cash Retained (M)50.3050.3050.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.76-14.23-8.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.5436.0841.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.80464.80464.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.99$11.67$25.50
Upside / Downside8.27%80.71%294.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.82121.21129.09137.48146.42155.94160.62
Payout Ratio55.80%62.64%69.48%76.32%83.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.5175.9389.70104.93121.76140.34148.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)69.3570.0170.67
Year 2 PV (M)74.8376.2677.70
Year 3 PV (M)79.9682.2584.59
Year 4 PV (M)84.7588.0191.36
Year 5 PV (M)89.2293.5398.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,731.531,815.161,901.99
Equity Value (M)2,129.642,225.222,324.32
Shares Outstanding (M)464.80464.80464.80
Fair Value$4.58$4.79$5.00
Upside / Downside-29.07%-25.89%-22.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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