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Definitive Analysis

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CK Hutchison Holdings Limited (0001.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.96 - $95.47$78.95
Multi-Stage$163.51 - $180.08$171.63
Blended Fair Value$125.29
Current Price$48.30
Upside159.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.05%1.42%2.462.842.702.512.933.192.962.742.602.53
YoY Growth---13.34%5.14%7.54%-14.34%-8.07%7.79%7.89%5.36%2.99%18.21%
Dividend Yield--5.93%6.89%5.77%4.91%5.34%4.26%3.98%2.78%2.96%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,232.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18,128.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,104.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,046.403,779.002,267.40
Cash Retained (M)12,104.0012,104.0012,104.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,046.40-3,779.00-2,267.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,057.608,325.009,836.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,830.053,830.053,830.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.582.172.57
LTM Dividend per Share4.734.734.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.582.172.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.316.917.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-3.21%-2.21%-1.21%
Fair Value$63.96$78.95$95.47
Upside / Downside32.43%63.45%97.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,232.0029,563.6228,910.0228,270.8727,645.8527,034.6527,845.69
Payout Ratio59.96%65.97%71.98%77.99%83.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18,128.0019,503.2320,808.7922,047.0923,220.4724,331.1925,757.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-3.21%-2.21%-1.21%
Year 1 PV (M)18,152.1318,339.6718,527.22
Year 2 PV (M)18,025.5718,399.9618,778.21
Year 3 PV (M)17,775.2018,331.8618,900.02
Year 4 PV (M)17,424.3018,155.6318,909.74
Year 5 PV (M)16,992.9417,889.1018,822.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)537,869.54566,235.27595,785.32
Equity Value (M)626,239.68657,351.50689,723.18
Shares Outstanding (M)3,830.053,830.053,830.05
Fair Value$163.51$171.63$180.08
Upside / Downside238.52%255.34%272.84%

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