Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co., Ltd. (000049.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.79 - $215.85$74.28
Multi-Stage$22.87 - $24.98$23.90
Blended Fair Value$49.09
Current Price$27.91
Upside75.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.96%21.49%1.061.920.930.921.050.720.430.270.120.19
YoY Growth---44.83%106.63%0.90%-12.57%45.82%67.59%61.71%116.79%-35.44%25.95%
Dividend Yield--4.63%7.91%2.32%2.72%2.42%3.33%1.88%1.23%0.38%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)417.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)225.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)192.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.4952.1831.31
Cash Retained (M)192.04192.04192.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.49-52.18-31.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.55139.86160.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.64384.64384.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.360.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.360.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.79$74.28$215.85
Upside / Downside38.98%166.16%673.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)417.47444.61473.51504.28537.06571.97589.13
Payout Ratio54.00%61.20%68.40%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)225.43272.09323.87381.24444.69514.77544.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.86%7.86%7.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)249.89252.26254.63
Year 2 PV (M)273.18278.38283.64
Year 3 PV (M)295.33303.80312.44
Year 4 PV (M)316.37328.54341.05
Year 5 PV (M)336.35352.60369.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,324.207,677.968,045.26
Equity Value (M)8,795.339,193.559,606.50
Shares Outstanding (M)384.64384.64384.64
Fair Value$22.87$23.90$24.98
Upside / Downside-18.07%-14.36%-10.52%

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