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Definitive Analysis

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Ping An Bank Co., Ltd. (000001.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.34 - $417.03$365.59
Multi-Stage$52.83 - $57.80$55.26
Blended Fair Value$210.43
Current Price$11.34
Upside1,755.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.02%30.35%1.050.410.350.310.290.160.160.170.110.10
YoY Growth--157.47%15.20%14.70%7.06%76.10%4.83%-10.54%63.86%10.11%30.53%
Dividend Yield--9.32%3.83%2.82%2.01%1.31%1.28%1.18%1.60%1.16%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43,118.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,648.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)28,470.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,623.605,389.753,233.85
Cash Retained (M)28,470.0028,470.0028,470.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,623.60-5,389.75-3,233.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,846.4023,080.2525,236.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20,562.2020,562.2020,562.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.831.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.34$365.59$417.03
Upside / Downside917.07%3,123.88%3,577.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43,118.0045,920.6748,905.5152,084.3755,469.8659,075.4060,847.66
Payout Ratio33.97%45.18%56.38%67.59%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,648.0020,745.8227,574.4635,203.1843,707.1353,167.8656,284.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)19,200.3719,382.3619,564.36
Year 2 PV (M)23,619.2024,069.0724,523.20
Year 3 PV (M)27,907.3728,708.4929,524.80
Year 4 PV (M)32,067.7433,300.9834,569.45
Year 5 PV (M)36,103.0837,846.8839,657.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)947,305.48993,060.691,040,567.06
Equity Value (M)1,086,203.251,136,368.481,188,406.27
Shares Outstanding (M)20,562.2020,562.2020,562.20
Fair Value$52.83$55.26$57.80
Upside / Downside365.83%387.35%409.66%

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