Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$388.52 - $827.18$552.33
Multi-Stage$342.76 - $375.47$358.81
Blended Fair Value$455.57
Current Price$204.44
Upside122.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.13%6.04%0.810.840.891.000.260.810.570.580.590.60
YoY Growth---3.85%-5.08%-11.30%279.94%-67.28%41.94%-2.27%-1.71%-1.66%33.26%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.48%0.70%0.69%0.20%0.81%0.42%0.49%0.47%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,375.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,296.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)275.05171.91103.14
Cash Retained (M)1,296.871,296.871,296.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-275.05-171.91-103.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,021.821,124.971,193.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.7765.7765.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.5417.1018.15
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.5417.1018.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.7318.3019.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$388.52$552.33$827.18
Upside / Downside90.04%170.17%304.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,375.251,444.621,517.481,594.021,674.431,758.881,811.65
Payout Ratio5.70%22.56%39.42%56.28%73.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.38325.90598.19897.111,224.671,582.991,675.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)297.44300.30303.16
Year 2 PV (M)498.29507.91517.63
Year 3 PV (M)682.05701.90722.14
Year 4 PV (M)849.79882.93917.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,002.521,051.631,102.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,214.2320,155.5221,133.34
Equity Value (M)22,544.3123,600.2024,695.96
Shares Outstanding (M)65.7765.7765.77
Fair Value$342.76$358.81$375.47
Upside / Downside67.66%75.51%83.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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