DDM Analysis: ORRF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$131.68 - $751.41	$247.64
Multi-Stage	$76.57 - $83.73	$80.08
Blended Fair Value	$163.86
Current Price	$33.98
Upside	382.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.46%	0.00%	0.68	0.44	0.43	0.43	0.39	0.32	0.23	0.18	0.15	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	55.30%	2.67%	-0.19%	8.80%	23.74%	40.57%	25.43%	20.36%	59.06%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.27%	1.68%	2.15%	1.87%	1.77%	2.31%	1.21%	0.75%	0.67%	0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	73.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	54.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.61	9.13	5.48
Cash Retained (M)	54.02	54.02	54.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.61	-9.13	-5.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	39.41	44.89	48.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19.33	19.33	19.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.04	2.32	2.51
LTM Dividend per Share	0.98	0.98	0.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.04	2.32	2.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.02	3.31	3.49
WACC / Discount Rate	7.92%	7.92%	7.92%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$131.68	$247.64	$751.41
Upside / Downside	287.51%	628.80%	2,111.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	73.05	77.80	82.85	88.24	93.97	100.08	103.08
Payout Ratio	26.05%	38.84%	51.63%	64.42%	77.21%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.03	30.21	42.78	56.84	72.56	90.07	95.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.92%	7.92%	7.92%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	27.73	28.00	28.26
Year 2 PV (M)	36.04	36.73	37.42
Year 3 PV (M)	43.96	45.22	46.51
Year 4 PV (M)	51.51	53.49	55.52
Year 5 PV (M)	58.69	61.53	64.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,262.36	1,323.34	1,386.64
Equity Value (M)	1,480.29	1,548.29	1,618.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	19.33	19.33	19.33
Fair Value	$76.57	$80.08	$83.73
Upside / Downside	125.33%	135.68%	146.41%

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Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener