Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$113.37 - $269.19$167.33
Multi-Stage$81.33 - $88.77$84.98
Blended Fair Value$126.15
Current Price$200.94
Upside-37.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.09%7.72%1.641.521.271.201.061.061.011.090.910.88
YoY Growth--8.02%19.71%6.10%12.86%-0.23%4.71%-6.62%19.35%3.54%12.68%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.07%1.05%1.61%1.19%1.85%1.95%2.23%1.81%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,425.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,370.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,055.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,085.001,928.131,156.88
Cash Retained (M)10,055.0010,055.0010,055.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,085.00-1,928.13-1,156.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,970.008,126.888,898.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,892.502,892.502,892.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.813.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.861.861.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.813.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.274.674.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$113.37$167.33$269.19
Upside / Downside-43.58%-16.73%33.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,425.0016,427.6317,495.4218,632.6219,843.7421,133.5921,767.59
Payout Ratio34.81%45.85%56.89%67.93%78.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,370.007,532.219,952.8212,656.2915,669.1619,020.2320,135.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,816.026,880.626,945.23
Year 2 PV (M)8,150.098,305.338,462.03
Year 3 PV (M)9,378.449,647.679,921.99
Year 4 PV (M)10,506.9810,911.0511,326.67
Year 5 PV (M)11,541.3412,098.7912,677.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)188,840.22197,961.28207,431.42
Equity Value (M)235,233.10245,804.74256,764.91
Shares Outstanding (M)2,892.502,892.502,892.50
Fair Value$81.33$84.98$88.77
Upside / Downside-59.53%-57.71%-55.82%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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