Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited (MTC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$497.51 - $586.15$549.31
Multi-Stage$132.20 - $144.97$138.47
Blended Fair Value$343.89
Current Price$35.25
Upside875.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.18%4.03%0.210.950.370.370.300.260.180.100.200.13
YoY Growth---77.89%156.76%0.00%23.33%15.38%44.44%80.00%-50.00%53.85%-8.13%
Dividend Yield--0.58%2.01%1.07%0.70%0.42%0.74%0.40%0.26%0.64%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,251.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)530.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,721.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,250.38781.49468.89
Cash Retained (M)5,721.925,721.925,721.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,250.38-781.49-468.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,471.544,940.435,253.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.232,121.232,121.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.112.332.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.112.332.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.582.73
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$497.51$549.31$586.15
Upside / Downside1,311.37%1,458.31%1,562.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,251.926,658.307,091.097,552.018,042.898,565.688,822.65
Payout Ratio8.48%24.78%41.09%57.39%73.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)530.001,650.052,913.484,334.175,927.257,709.118,160.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,552.401,567.111,581.82
Year 2 PV (M)2,578.812,627.932,677.51
Year 3 PV (M)3,609.263,712.873,818.44
Year 4 PV (M)4,643.764,822.345,006.03
Year 5 PV (M)5,682.315,956.776,241.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)262,357.81275,029.79288,186.76
Equity Value (M)280,424.35293,716.82307,512.31
Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.232,121.232,121.23
Fair Value$132.20$138.47$144.97
Upside / Downside275.03%292.81%311.26%

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