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Definitive Analysis

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Macquarie Group Limited (MQG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.23 - $282.01$227.78
Multi-Stage$372.64 - $409.33$390.63
Blended Fair Value$309.20
Current Price$196.64
Upside57.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.61%10.82%5.787.035.314.522.275.614.854.393.903.24
YoY Growth---17.84%32.44%17.48%98.72%-59.43%15.64%10.34%12.59%20.28%56.83%
Dividend Yield--2.94%3.55%3.02%2.22%1.49%6.54%3.71%4.27%4.33%4.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,189.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,849.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,340.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,437.80898.63539.18
Cash Retained (M)2,340.002,340.002,340.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,437.80-898.63-539.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)902.201,441.381,800.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)378.47378.47378.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.383.814.76
LTM Dividend per Share12.8112.8112.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.383.814.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.2016.6217.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-1.39%-0.39%0.61%
Fair Value$181.23$227.78$282.01
Upside / Downside-7.84%15.83%43.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,189.007,160.627,132.367,104.207,076.167,048.237,259.67
Payout Ratio67.45%71.96%76.47%80.98%85.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,849.005,152.805,454.125,752.996,049.416,343.406,715.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-1.39%-0.39%0.61%
Year 1 PV (M)4,773.004,821.414,869.81
Year 2 PV (M)4,679.754,775.154,871.51
Year 3 PV (M)4,572.354,712.884,856.25
Year 4 PV (M)4,453.564,636.994,826.03
Year 5 PV (M)4,325.794,549.634,782.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)118,228.02124,345.88130,714.41
Equity Value (M)141,032.47147,841.93154,920.66
Shares Outstanding (M)378.47378.47378.47
Fair Value$372.64$390.63$409.33
Upside / Downside89.50%98.65%108.16%

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