Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Loblaw Companies Limited (L-PB.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.15 - $291.01$198.36
Multi-Stage$208.83 - $229.35$218.89
Blended Fair Value$208.63
Current Price$56.31
Upside270.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.04%-0.77%1.511.811.701.551.911.511.451.081.401.37
YoY Growth---16.55%6.38%9.53%-18.62%26.09%4.55%34.56%-23.06%2.16%-16.13%
Dividend Yield--2.99%4.81%5.52%5.53%10.87%8.34%8.77%8.34%9.68%9.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,466.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)787.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,679.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)493.20308.25184.95
Cash Retained (M)1,679.001,679.001,679.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-493.20-308.25-184.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,185.801,370.751,494.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)304.15304.15304.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.514.91
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.514.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.497.097.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Fair Value$141.15$198.36$291.01
Upside / Downside150.67%252.27%416.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,466.002,531.482,598.692,667.692,738.522,811.232,895.57
Payout Ratio31.91%43.53%55.15%66.77%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)787.001,101.981,433.141,781.102,146.532,530.112,678.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)1,026.321,036.411,046.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,243.091,267.661,292.48
Year 3 PV (M)1,438.831,481.711,525.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,614.971,679.461,745.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,772.861,861.791,954.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,418.6659,248.8062,191.39
Equity Value (M)63,514.7366,575.8469,755.94
Shares Outstanding (M)304.15304.15304.15
Fair Value$208.83$218.89$229.35
Upside / Downside270.85%288.73%307.29%

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