Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Kurniamitra Duta Sentosa, Tbk (KMDS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,238.30 - $14,376.07$13,472.48
Multi-Stage$2,244.25 - $2,455.56$2,347.97
Blended Fair Value$7,910.22
Current Price$590.00
Upside1,240.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS52.97%0.00%37.0036.0035.0021.255.254.420.5310.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.78%2.86%64.71%304.76%18.85%732.62%-94.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.97%7.53%5.19%4.96%1.04%1.18%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57,829.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,429.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,565.917,228.704,337.22
Cash Retained (M)27,429.5627,429.5627,429.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,565.91-7,228.70-4,337.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,863.6520,200.8723,092.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)800.00800.00800.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share19.8325.2528.87
LTM Dividend per Share38.0038.0038.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share19.8325.2528.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.8363.2566.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,238.30$13,472.48$14,376.07
Upside / Downside1,126.83%2,183.47%2,336.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57,829.5661,588.4965,591.7469,855.2074,395.7979,231.5181,608.46
Payout Ratio52.57%60.05%67.54%75.03%82.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30,400.0036,986.7344,301.2952,410.4861,386.6871,308.3675,487.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34,454.0534,780.6335,107.21
Year 2 PV (M)38,441.9339,174.1439,913.26
Year 3 PV (M)42,364.4343,580.5644,819.75
Year 4 PV (M)46,222.3447,999.9249,828.28
Year 5 PV (M)50,016.4252,432.2354,940.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,583,901.641,660,404.681,739,835.68
Equity Value (M)1,795,400.821,878,372.181,964,444.69
Shares Outstanding (M)800.00800.00800.00
Fair Value$2,244.25$2,347.97$2,455.56
Upside / Downside280.38%297.96%316.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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