Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kepler Weber S.A. (KEPL3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.87 - $162.52$152.30
Multi-Stage$22.32 - $24.38$23.33
Blended Fair Value$87.82
Current Price$7.32
Upside1,099.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS87.48%27.96%0.880.881.030.270.080.040.000.000.020.21
YoY Growth---0.03%-14.48%280.87%225.83%118.33%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-92.50%176.26%
Dividend Yield--11.46%9.04%13.05%3.73%1.89%1.61%0.00%0.00%0.67%14.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)141.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.3817.7410.64
Cash Retained (M)14.4714.4714.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.38-17.74-10.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.91-3.273.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)173.64173.64173.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.87$152.30$162.52
Upside / Downside581.34%1,980.65%2,120.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)141.90151.12160.95171.41182.55194.42200.25
Payout Ratio89.80%89.84%89.88%89.92%89.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.43135.77144.66154.13164.22174.97185.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)125.84127.03128.22
Year 2 PV (M)124.26126.63129.02
Year 3 PV (M)122.71126.23129.82
Year 4 PV (M)121.17125.83130.63
Year 5 PV (M)119.66125.44131.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,262.313,419.883,583.49
Equity Value (M)3,875.964,051.054,232.62
Shares Outstanding (M)173.64173.64173.64
Fair Value$22.32$23.33$24.38
Upside / Downside204.94%218.71%233.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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