Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Central Pattana Public Company Limited (CPN-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$622.45 - $733.36$687.26
Multi-Stage$192.33 - $210.74$201.37
Blended Fair Value$444.31
Current Price$46.25
Upside860.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.28%12.55%1.821.150.600.700.811.121.400.830.700.65
YoY Growth--57.84%91.31%-13.64%-13.67%-27.55%-20.18%68.67%18.58%7.69%16.32%
Dividend Yield--3.88%1.83%0.88%1.18%1.39%2.61%1.87%1.06%1.23%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,551.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,528.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,022.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,310.252,068.901,241.34
Cash Retained (M)7,022.747,022.747,022.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,310.25-2,068.90-1,241.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,712.504,953.845,781.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,488.444,488.444,488.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.831.101.29
LTM Dividend per Share2.122.122.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.831.101.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate5.02%5.02%5.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$622.45$687.26$733.36
Upside / Downside1,245.85%1,385.97%1,485.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,551.2317,627.0518,772.8119,993.0521,292.5922,676.6123,356.91
Payout Ratio57.57%64.06%70.54%77.03%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,528.4911,291.1413,242.6815,400.2217,782.2820,408.9521,605.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.02%5.02%5.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,650.4510,751.4110,852.36
Year 2 PV (M)11,782.4812,006.9012,233.44
Year 3 PV (M)12,924.6313,295.6513,673.70
Year 4 PV (M)14,076.9614,618.3315,175.15
Year 5 PV (M)15,239.5715,975.6416,739.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)798,608.09837,181.15877,230.51
Equity Value (M)863,282.17903,829.07945,905.05
Shares Outstanding (M)4,488.444,488.444,488.44
Fair Value$192.33$201.37$210.74
Upside / Downside315.86%335.39%355.66%

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