Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bicicletas Monark S.A. (BMKS3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,429.92 - $8,270.10$5,088.38
Multi-Stage$3,924.75 - $4,306.86$4,112.20
Blended Fair Value$4,600.29
Current Price$400.00
Upside1,050.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.20%4.79%37.6255.3417.127.595.838.0317.0735.2624.3031.58
YoY Growth---32.03%223.25%125.57%30.28%-27.43%-52.97%-51.60%45.12%-23.05%34.09%
Dividend Yield--9.86%13.94%4.39%3.07%2.40%4.12%5.69%10.85%8.10%11.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.379.615.77
Cash Retained (M)61.6061.6061.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.37-9.61-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2351.9955.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.470.470.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share98.14110.38118.54
LTM Dividend per Share32.4232.4232.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share98.14110.38118.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend130.56142.80150.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Fair Value$3,429.92$5,088.38$8,270.10
Upside / Downside757.48%1,172.10%1,967.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.8779.7982.8285.9689.2292.6195.38
Payout Ratio19.86%33.89%47.92%61.95%75.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.2727.0439.6853.2567.7883.3488.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Year 1 PV (M)25.1025.3425.59
Year 2 PV (M)34.1834.8535.53
Year 3 PV (M)42.5743.8345.10
Year 4 PV (M)50.3052.2854.33
Year 5 PV (M)57.4060.2463.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,639.131,720.431,804.92
Equity Value (M)1,848.681,936.972,028.66
Shares Outstanding (M)0.470.470.47
Fair Value$3,924.75$4,112.20$4,306.86
Upside / Downside881.19%928.05%976.72%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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