DDM Analysis: 600862.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.24 - $30.42	$20.27
Multi-Stage	$10.59 - $11.55	$11.06
Blended Fair Value	$15.67
Current Price	$23.69
Upside	-33.87%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.92%	24.54%	0.22	0.17	0.13	0.10	0.17	0.15	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	35.16%	26.59%	26.91%	-40.45%	13.23%	413.38%	-9.09%	33.02%	6.20%	-7.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.94%	0.85%	0.59%	0.46%	0.67%	1.27%	0.29%	0.37%	0.21%	0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,046.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	349.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	697.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	209.40	130.87	78.52
Cash Retained (M)	697.74	697.74	697.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-209.40	-130.87	-78.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	488.35	566.87	619.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,390.89	1,390.89	1,390.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.41	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.41	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.60	0.66	0.70
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$14.24	$20.27	$30.42
Upside / Downside	-39.88%	-14.44%	28.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,046.99	1,115.05	1,187.53	1,264.72	1,346.92	1,434.47	1,477.51
Payout Ratio	33.36%	44.69%	56.01%	67.34%	78.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	349.25	498.27	665.19	851.70	1,059.64	1,291.02	1,366.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	448.88	453.13	457.39
Year 2 PV (M)	539.85	550.13	560.51
Year 3 PV (M)	622.70	640.58	658.79
Year 4 PV (M)	697.95	724.79	752.40
Year 5 PV (M)	766.06	803.06	841.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,650.72	12,213.46	12,797.73
Equity Value (M)	14,726.17	15,385.15	16,068.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,390.89	1,390.89	1,390.89
Fair Value	$10.59	$11.06	$11.55
Upside / Downside	-55.31%	-53.31%	-51.23%

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AVIC Aviation High-Technology Co., Ltd. (600862.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener