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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., Ltd. (600000.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.01 - $43.89$31.41
Multi-Stage$31.79 - $34.86$33.30
Blended Fair Value$32.36
Current Price$11.90
Upside171.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.30%16.65%1.741.261.711.741.601.281.030.180.360.46
YoY Growth--37.65%-26.06%-1.71%8.45%25.11%24.58%461.41%-48.94%-21.14%22.01%
Dividend Yield--16.68%17.48%23.77%21.73%14.59%12.63%8.99%1.57%2.91%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48,853.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,091.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,762.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,770.606,106.633,663.98
Cash Retained (M)25,762.0025,762.0025,762.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,770.60-6,106.63-3,663.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,991.4019,655.3822,098.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33,009.1333,009.1333,009.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Fair Value$23.01$31.41$43.89
Upside / Downside93.37%163.97%268.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48,853.0050,219.2651,623.7353,067.4754,551.6056,077.2257,759.54
Payout Ratio47.27%55.81%64.36%72.91%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,091.0028,028.8933,224.9138,689.6444,434.0550,469.5053,427.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Year 1 PV (M)25,932.0426,186.7826,441.52
Year 2 PV (M)28,439.7229,001.2229,568.20
Year 3 PV (M)30,639.8731,551.7432,481.52
Year 4 PV (M)32,556.5833,854.8335,191.53
Year 5 PV (M)34,212.3235,926.0937,707.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)897,693.91942,661.25989,412.80
Equity Value (M)1,049,474.421,099,181.891,150,803.43
Shares Outstanding (M)33,009.1333,009.1333,009.13
Fair Value$31.79$33.30$34.86
Upside / Downside167.17%179.83%192.97%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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