Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tri Chemical Laboratories Inc. (4369.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,415.92 - $7,411.39$4,888.56
Multi-Stage$2,479.93 - $2,708.54$2,592.16
Blended Fair Value$3,740.36
Current Price$2,993.00
Upside24.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.74%52.42%29.9929.9719.9916.3413.9710.775.053.842.391.62
YoY Growth--0.05%49.92%22.33%16.98%29.77%113.17%31.66%60.82%47.58%264.66%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.68%0.91%0.68%0.38%0.44%0.35%0.35%0.32%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,756.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,136.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,619.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,151.25719.53431.72
Cash Retained (M)4,619.814,619.814,619.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,151.25-719.53-431.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,468.563,900.284,188.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.5032.5032.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share106.74120.02128.88
LTM Dividend per Share34.9734.9734.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share106.74120.02128.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend141.71154.99163.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,415.92$4,888.56$7,411.39
Upside / Downside14.13%63.33%147.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,756.236,130.386,528.866,953.247,405.207,886.538,123.13
Payout Ratio19.74%33.79%47.85%61.90%75.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,136.422,071.703,123.774,303.845,624.147,097.887,513.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,867.781,885.481,903.19
Year 2 PV (M)2,539.072,587.432,636.25
Year 3 PV (M)3,153.913,244.453,336.71
Year 4 PV (M)3,715.753,858.654,005.63
Year 5 PV (M)4,227.834,432.044,644.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,085.3268,228.9771,492.93
Equity Value (M)80,589.6784,237.0288,018.76
Shares Outstanding (M)32.5032.5032.50
Fair Value$2,479.93$2,592.16$2,708.54
Upside / Downside-17.14%-13.39%-9.50%

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