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Definitive Analysis

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CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited (1093.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92.57 - $173.85$162.93
Multi-Stage$27.66 - $30.25$28.93
Blended Fair Value$95.93
Current Price$7.70
Upside1,145.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.55%22.19%0.300.250.180.170.130.090.080.060.060.05
YoY Growth--16.90%43.03%2.91%33.39%41.40%21.22%22.68%11.73%10.06%25.00%
Dividend Yield--6.21%3.50%2.17%2.04%1.63%0.95%1.28%0.72%1.28%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,320.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,175.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,144.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,064.081,290.05774.03
Cash Retained (M)4,144.424,144.424,144.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,064.08-1,290.05-774.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,080.352,854.383,370.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,805.6811,805.6811,805.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$92.57$162.93$173.85
Upside / Downside1,102.21%2,015.93%2,157.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,320.3810,991.2011,705.6312,466.5013,276.8214,139.8114,564.01
Payout Ratio59.84%65.87%71.91%77.94%83.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,175.957,240.338,416.989,716.0011,148.3412,725.8313,471.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,747.466,811.416,875.37
Year 2 PV (M)7,310.047,449.287,589.82
Year 3 PV (M)7,863.818,089.558,319.57
Year 4 PV (M)8,408.868,732.249,064.86
Year 5 PV (M)8,945.309,377.369,825.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)287,215.75301,088.38315,491.94
Equity Value (M)326,491.21341,548.21357,167.52
Shares Outstanding (M)11,805.6811,805.6811,805.68
Fair Value$27.66$28.93$30.25
Upside / Downside259.16%275.73%292.91%

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