DDM Analysis: 002423.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.98 - $34.56	$17.64
Multi-Stage	$7.22 - $7.89	$7.55
Blended Fair Value	$12.59
Current Price	$13.39
Upside	-5.94%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	45.61%	74.60%	0.27	0.27	0.35	0.25	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.36%	-23.51%	37.79%	804.64%	-31.11%	27.10%	30.86%	62.78%	13.91%	1,204.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.14%	3.49%	4.88%	3.15%	0.32%	0.46%	0.28%	0.17%	0.11%	0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	957.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	272.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	685.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	191.60	119.75	71.85
Cash Retained (M)	685.38	685.38	685.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-191.60	-119.75	-71.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	493.79	565.64	613.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,303.96	2,303.96	2,303.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.36	0.38
WACC / Discount Rate	8.70%	8.70%	8.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$10.98	$17.64	$34.56
Upside / Downside	-18.01%	31.75%	158.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	957.98	1,020.24	1,086.56	1,157.19	1,232.40	1,312.51	1,351.88
Payout Ratio	28.45%	40.76%	53.07%	65.38%	77.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	272.59	415.89	576.67	756.59	957.47	1,181.26	1,250.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.70%	8.70%	8.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	379.02	382.62	386.21
Year 2 PV (M)	478.96	488.09	497.29
Year 3 PV (M)	572.70	589.14	605.89
Year 4 PV (M)	660.50	685.90	712.03
Year 5 PV (M)	742.65	778.52	815.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,801.29	14,467.89	15,160.01
Equity Value (M)	16,635.12	17,392.15	18,177.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,303.96	2,303.96	2,303.96
Fair Value	$7.22	$7.55	$7.89
Upside / Downside	-46.08%	-43.62%	-41.08%

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Financial Statements

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COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. (002423.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener