Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Gunkul Engineering Public Company Limited (GUNKUL-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.34 - $40.48$37.94
Multi-Stage$6.42 - $7.02$6.71
Blended Fair Value$22.33
Current Price$1.49
Upside1,398.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.55%39.27%0.080.120.190.250.140.010.100.030.030.00
YoY Growth---35.42%-33.32%-25.00%78.41%1,531.84%-91.83%252.23%-12.20%1,075.93%-1.78%
Dividend Yield--5.20%4.43%4.60%4.06%3.71%0.39%4.01%1.02%0.88%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,750.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,375.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)375.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)350.18218.86131.32
Cash Retained (M)375.16375.16375.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-350.18-218.86-131.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.98156.30243.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,601.618,601.618,601.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.34$37.94$40.48
Upside / Downside1,265.08%2,446.13%2,616.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,750.891,864.701,985.902,114.992,252.462,398.872,470.84
Payout Ratio78.57%80.86%83.14%85.43%87.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,375.731,507.761,651.161,806.821,975.742,158.982,285.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,404.501,417.811,431.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,432.721,460.011,487.56
Year 3 PV (M)1,460.411,502.341,545.05
Year 4 PV (M)1,487.571,544.781,603.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,514.211,587.341,663.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,925.9750,240.8152,644.25
Equity Value (M)55,225.3857,753.0960,374.88
Shares Outstanding (M)8,601.618,601.618,601.61
Fair Value$6.42$6.71$7.02
Upside / Downside330.90%350.62%371.08%

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