Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Corporativo Fragua, S.A.B. de C.V. (FRAGUAB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,536.62 - $9,737.06$7,253.01
Multi-Stage$1,200.66 - $1,313.68$1,256.14
Blended Fair Value$4,254.57
Current Price$552.00
Upside670.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.62%26.12%12.2210.709.689.022.942.771.601.501.401.30
YoY Growth--14.22%10.51%7.37%206.45%6.45%72.79%6.67%7.14%7.69%8.33%
Dividend Yield--2.33%1.56%2.02%2.72%1.09%1.15%0.60%0.61%0.62%0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,022.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,546.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,475.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,004.45627.78376.67
Cash Retained (M)3,475.283,475.283,475.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,004.45-627.78-376.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,470.832,847.503,098.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.58102.58102.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share24.0927.7630.21
LTM Dividend per Share15.0815.0815.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share24.0927.7630.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend39.1742.8445.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,536.62$7,253.01$9,737.06
Upside / Downside359.53%1,213.95%1,663.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,022.265,348.715,696.376,066.646,460.976,880.937,087.36
Payout Ratio30.80%42.64%54.48%66.32%78.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,546.982,280.793,103.474,023.455,049.936,192.846,555.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,109.022,129.022,149.01
Year 2 PV (M)2,653.622,704.162,755.18
Year 3 PV (M)3,181.163,272.483,365.53
Year 4 PV (M)3,692.053,834.033,980.08
Year 5 PV (M)4,186.664,388.884,598.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)107,338.06112,522.53117,905.42
Equity Value (M)123,160.57128,851.10134,754.05
Shares Outstanding (M)102.58102.58102.58
Fair Value$1,200.66$1,256.14$1,313.68
Upside / Downside117.51%127.56%137.99%

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