Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The First Bancshares, Inc. (FBMS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.24 - $219.36$107.89
Multi-Stage$43.57 - $47.59$45.54
Blended Fair Value$76.71
Current Price$35.00
Upside119.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.66%44.68%0.970.870.510.380.270.160.080.040.020.02
YoY Growth--11.30%69.28%35.73%39.61%65.49%102.97%80.58%80.84%0.59%2.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%3.41%1.99%1.12%0.74%0.86%0.26%0.14%0.09%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.449.655.79
Cash Retained (M)46.5346.5346.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.44-9.65-5.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.0936.8840.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.6831.6831.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.981.161.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.981.161.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.952.132.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.24$107.89$219.36
Upside / Downside89.25%208.24%526.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.1982.2187.5693.2599.31105.76108.94
Payout Ratio39.72%49.78%59.83%69.89%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6640.9252.3965.1779.3995.19100.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.3337.6838.04
Year 2 PV (M)43.5944.4245.25
Year 3 PV (M)49.4550.8752.32
Year 4 PV (M)54.9557.0759.24
Year 5 PV (M)60.1063.0066.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,135.161,189.981,246.91
Equity Value (M)1,380.571,443.021,507.77
Shares Outstanding (M)31.6831.6831.68
Fair Value$43.57$45.54$47.59
Upside / Downside24.49%30.13%35.96%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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