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Definitive Analysis

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AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited (AP-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$178.05 - $291.62$273.29
Multi-Stage$47.36 - $51.85$49.57
Blended Fair Value$161.43
Current Price$6.25
Upside2,482.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.82%11.04%0.700.650.500.450.400.400.350.300.300.26
YoY Growth--7.59%30.08%11.06%12.48%0.00%14.34%16.61%0.00%15.40%5.91%
Dividend Yield--9.26%6.02%4.16%4.09%4.88%10.53%4.93%3.80%4.17%4.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,613.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,887.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,725.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)922.60576.63345.98
Cash Retained (M)2,725.512,725.512,725.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-922.60-576.63-345.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,802.902,148.882,379.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,145.903,145.903,145.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$178.05$273.29$291.62
Upside / Downside2,748.87%4,272.69%4,565.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,613.024,912.875,232.205,572.305,934.506,320.246,509.85
Payout Ratio40.92%50.73%60.55%70.37%80.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,887.522,492.483,168.113,921.054,758.485,688.216,021.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,325.042,347.082,369.11
Year 2 PV (M)2,756.752,809.262,862.26
Year 3 PV (M)3,182.723,274.083,367.18
Year 4 PV (M)3,602.983,741.543,884.06
Year 5 PV (M)4,017.624,211.674,413.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,114.09139,543.55146,219.08
Equity Value (M)148,999.19155,927.17163,114.84
Shares Outstanding (M)3,145.903,145.903,145.90
Fair Value$47.36$49.57$51.85
Upside / Downside657.81%693.04%729.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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