Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ANZ Group Holdings Limited (AN3PJ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$706.63 - $832.53$780.20
Multi-Stage$197.66 - $216.44$206.88
Blended Fair Value$493.54
Current Price$102.70
Upside380.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.83%1.97%1.401.611.341.160.870.881.371.401.351.40
YoY Growth---12.93%19.91%15.75%33.52%-0.94%-36.01%-2.02%4.04%-3.90%21.29%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.57%1.34%1.17%0.86%0.87%1.36%1.39%1.33%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,633.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,099.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,534.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,726.601,704.131,022.48
Cash Retained (M)3,534.003,534.003,534.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,726.60-1,704.13-1,022.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)807.401,829.882,511.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.673,256.673,256.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.560.77
LTM Dividend per Share3.103.103.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.560.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$706.63$780.20$832.53
Upside / Downside588.05%659.69%710.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,633.0014,519.1515,462.8916,467.9817,538.4018,678.3919,238.74
Payout Ratio74.08%77.26%80.45%83.63%86.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,099.0011,217.7912,439.3613,772.3415,226.0516,810.5517,795.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,558.8910,658.9810,759.06
Year 2 PV (M)11,020.9711,230.8911,442.79
Year 3 PV (M)11,485.2511,814.9512,150.90
Year 4 PV (M)11,951.7312,411.3612,884.12
Year 5 PV (M)12,420.4213,020.3313,643.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)586,273.94614,591.19643,992.21
Equity Value (M)643,711.20673,727.69704,872.27
Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.673,256.673,256.67
Fair Value$197.66$206.88$216.44
Upside / Downside92.46%101.44%110.75%

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