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Definitive Analysis

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J Trust Co., Ltd. (8508.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,948.99 - $6,953.85$6,337.52
Multi-Stage$928.63 - $1,016.13$971.58
Blended Fair Value$3,654.55
Current Price$424.00
Upside761.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192019201820172016
DPS76.21%4.22%13.389.650.790.000.790.799.279.2610.518.73
YoY Growth--38.72%1,124.76%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-91.50%0.08%-11.85%20.36%-1.36%
Dividend Yield--3.06%2.14%0.20%0.00%0.34%0.35%1.86%1.01%1.19%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,670.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,858.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,812.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)934.00583.75350.25
Cash Retained (M)2,812.002,812.002,812.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-934.00-583.75-350.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,878.002,228.252,461.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.33133.33133.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.0916.7118.46
LTM Dividend per Share13.9413.9413.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.0916.7118.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.0230.6532.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.31%6.31%7.31%
Fair Value$1,948.99$6,337.52$6,953.85
Upside / Downside359.67%1,394.70%1,540.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,670.004,964.845,278.305,611.565,965.856,342.516,532.78
Payout Ratio39.79%49.83%59.87%69.91%79.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,858.002,473.923,160.203,923.284,770.125,708.266,042.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.31%6.31%7.31%
Year 1 PV (M)2,294.022,315.802,337.58
Year 2 PV (M)2,717.302,769.152,821.49
Year 3 PV (M)3,128.133,218.093,309.75
Year 4 PV (M)3,526.763,662.633,802.40
Year 5 PV (M)3,913.474,102.834,299.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,232.34113,469.43118,907.31
Equity Value (M)123,812.01129,537.93135,477.99
Shares Outstanding (M)133.33133.33133.33
Fair Value$928.63$971.58$1,016.13
Upside / Downside119.02%129.15%139.65%

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