DDM Analysis: 601918.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$28.90 - $155.77	$56.70
Multi-Stage	$19.40 - $21.25	$20.30
Blended Fair Value	$38.50
Current Price	$6.23
Upside	518.04%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.23%	0.58%	0.33	0.29	0.28	0.30	0.35	0.35	0.36	0.38	0.39	0.34
YoY Growth	-	-	15.14%	5.19%	-9.43%	-12.42%	-2.14%	-2.37%	-4.30%	-3.05%	13.52%	9.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.87%	3.38%	6.67%	5.20%	10.81%	13.04%	10.26%	11.86%	7.80%	5.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,045.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	383.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,661.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	409.04	255.65	153.39
Cash Retained (M)	1,661.31	1,661.31	1,661.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-409.04	-255.65	-153.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,252.27	1,405.66	1,507.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,590.54	2,590.54	2,590.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.54	0.58
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.54	0.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.63	0.69	0.73
WACC / Discount Rate	6.94%	6.94%	6.94%
Growth Rate	4.65%	5.65%	6.65%
Fair Value	$28.90	$56.70	$155.77
Upside / Downside	363.88%	810.16%	2,400.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,045.20	2,160.78	2,282.89	2,411.91	2,548.21	2,692.22	2,772.99
Payout Ratio	18.77%	33.02%	47.26%	61.51%	75.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	383.88	713.40	1,078.94	1,483.52	1,930.37	2,423.00	2,565.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.94%	6.94%	6.94%
Growth Rate	4.65%	5.65%	6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)	660.80	667.11	673.43
Year 2 PV (M)	925.70	943.47	961.42
Year 3 PV (M)	1,178.96	1,213.08	1,247.85
Year 4 PV (M)	1,420.97	1,476.06	1,532.74
Year 5 PV (M)	1,652.08	1,732.54	1,816.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	44,405.43	46,567.96	48,813.92
Equity Value (M)	50,243.94	52,600.22	55,045.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,590.54	2,590.54	2,590.54
Fair Value	$19.40	$20.30	$21.25
Upside / Downside	211.32%	225.92%	241.07%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

China Coal Xinji Energy Co.,Ltd (601918.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener