DDM Analysis: 601898.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.18 - $137.57	$52.96
Multi-Stage	$18.27 - $19.99	$19.11
Blended Fair Value	$36.04
Current Price	$11.36
Upside	217.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	58.33%	5.32%	0.78	0.66	0.30	0.13	0.13	0.08	0.44	0.42	0.44	0.46
YoY Growth	-	-	17.30%	119.24%	125.19%	5.51%	62.82%	-82.28%	5.87%	-5.85%	-4.30%	-0.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.73%	5.82%	3.82%	1.66%	2.07%	1.95%	8.38%	8.13%	7.21%	9.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,789.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,162.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10,626.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,557.92	1,598.70	959.22
Cash Retained (M)	10,626.67	10,626.67	10,626.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,557.92	-1,598.70	-959.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8,068.75	9,027.97	9,667.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	13,258.44	13,258.44	13,258.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.68	0.73
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.68	0.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.77	0.84	0.89
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$30.18	$52.96	$137.57
Upside / Downside	165.71%	366.23%	1,111.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,789.60	13,620.93	14,506.29	15,449.20	16,453.39	17,522.86	18,048.55
Payout Ratio	16.91%	31.53%	46.15%	60.76%	75.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,162.94	4,294.59	6,694.22	9,387.65	12,402.95	15,770.58	16,694.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,931.95	3,969.22	4,006.49
Year 2 PV (M)	5,611.43	5,718.31	5,826.20
Year 3 PV (M)	7,204.72	7,411.54	7,622.28
Year 4 PV (M)	8,715.09	9,050.25	9,394.98
Year 5 PV (M)	10,145.68	10,635.71	11,144.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	206,654.37	216,635.85	226,999.35
Equity Value (M)	242,263.23	253,420.88	264,993.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	13,258.44	13,258.44	13,258.44
Fair Value	$18.27	$19.11	$19.99
Upside / Downside	60.85%	68.26%	75.94%

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9201.T	Japan Airlines Co., Ltd.	2.96%	$85.89	30.05%
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9931.TW	Hsin Kao Gas Co.,Ltd.	2.96%	$1.01	40.68%
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China Coal Energy Company Limited (601898.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener